Men's Bracketology: 2025 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 5/2/2024 at 10 a.m. ET

There is no longer an offseason in college basketball. With more than 1,800 Division I players changing teams, the majority of programs are dependent on the transfer portal to stock and restock their rosters each spring. The resulting tumult creates wide swings in projected performance for the following year, and we're here to track it for you with monthly bracket updates until opening night on Nov. 4.

Bracket Watch

The fault lines of college basketball are on full display in this special post-portal update. Duke, still a projected No. 1 seed but no longer first overall, remains at the forefront of one-and-done recruiting. Kansas, though, has eclipsed the Blue Devils in this bracket thanks to the post-pandemic mantra of "get old, stay old." Not only are the Jayhawks returning national POY candidate Hunter Dickinson for his COVID year, but Kansas also boasts fifth-year guard Dajuan Harris Jr. along with veteran portal additions Rylan Griffen (Alabama), AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Riley Kugel (Florida) and Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State). All have NCAA tournament experience and will certainly help the Jayhawks erase the injury-riddled conclusion to their 2023-24 campaign, when KU dropped five of its last seven contests. Finally, we can't ignore the newcomer among our 1-seeds. Perhaps you've heard of two-time defending champion Connecticut, which added firepower both old (Saint Mary's sharpshooter Aidan Mahaney) and young (recent top-15 signee Liam McNeeley) to its three-peat bid. The 2024-25 title chase is shaping up quite nicely.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Cleveland

Seattle

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Providence

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Wichita

Cleveland

Lexington

Raleigh

EAST (NEWARK)

Raleigh

Milwaukee

Denver

Milwaukee

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Cleveland

Seattle

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Providence

Providence

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Wichita

Cleveland

Lexington

Raleigh

EAST (NEWARK)

Raleigh

Milwaukee

Denver

Milwaukee

Conference Breakdown

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